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S&P; 500 Jun SPM1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S S&P; 500 COMMENTARY The only Pattern Signal fired for today's trading in the S&P; is the 2 Day Rate Of Change Buy. This signal is the Raschke and Connors way of quantifying the swing trading methods as taught by the Taylor Trading Technique. This technique teaches that there is a natural pattern to the sequence of buy and sell days. The 2 Day ROC Buy signal is telling us to expect today to be the "buy day" part of that pattern. On the S&P; Half Day Chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators jogged higher from oversold levels on the last bar of yesterday's activity. Although this kind of move is often an early sign of a short term cyclical bottom, the patterns leading up to this move do not support such an assessment. It would be best to wait until the indicators have had a chance to normalize and return to more normal short term cyclical behavior before using them to help determine any sort of directional bias. ADX levels on 60 and 120 minute charts are above 30, indicating that the trend to lower prices is still intact in these timeframes (see charts below). If we were triggered into a short position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 20EMA in either of these timeframes, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 1088.50 low. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more downside in the making. Even though the 2 Day ROC Buy signal is suggesting further upside activity, it would be best to enter today's trading without a directional preference, but with strict attention to market action relative to important support and resistance levels. In today's early going, pay particular attention to price behavior in relation to the 1113.30 Daily Pivot. Significant activity above this level will imply further upside. Activity below will hint at further downside.
Nasdaq 100 Jun NDM1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S NASDAQ 100 COMMENTARY We have two Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in the Nasdaq 100, the first of which is the 2 Day ROC Buy. This signal is the Raschke and Connors way of quantifying the swing trading methods as taught by the Taylor Trading Technique. This technique teaches that there is a natural pattern to the sequence of buy and sell days. The 2 Day ROC Buy signal is telling us to expect today to be the "buy day" part of that pattern. The second signal fired for today is the 90-10 High Continuation. This signal originates from the 80-20s set-ups as described in "Street Smarts". But, rather than using the 80-20 guidelines, the parameters have been narrowed to 90-10, thus reducing the pattern's frequency of occurrence, but increasing its probability as a forecasting tool. The 90-10 High Continuation signal is fired when the day's close is within the top 10% of the day's range. This signal is telling us to expect morning continuation of the upmove. On the Nasdaq 100 Half Day Chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators jogged higher from oversold levels on the last bar of yesterday's activity. Although this kind of move is often an early sign of a short term cyclical bottom, the patterns leading up to this move do not support such an assessment. It would be best to wait until the indicators have had a chance to normalize and return to more normal short term cyclical behavior before using them to help determine any sort of directional bias. The ADX level on the 5 minute chart is above 30 (see charts below), indicating that the trend to higher prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a long position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 5 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 1727.00 high. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more upside in the making. ADX levels on 15, 30, and 60 minute charts are either very close to or below a value of 18. When this occurs, we know that it is a good time to keep an eye out for any developing triangles, wedges, flags, or channels in the respective time frames. We can use breakouts from these patterns as either a trigger into a trade or to help determine directional bias. Both the 2 Day ROC Buy and 90-10 High Continuation signals are telling us to look for longs in today's early trading. The ideal setup would entail corrective action towards one of the support levels directly under yesterday's closing price, the most significant being that of the 1683.00 Daily Pivot. If price were able to reach this zone as higher timeframe 20EMAs came up to meet it from below, we'd have an extra reason to go long. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the position with the 90-10 High Continuation signal telling us to expect yesterday's 1727.00 high to be exceeded. Use similar price and oscillator behavior characteristics to determine an appropriate exit point above this level. Although not expected, if the Daily Pivot level were to suffer a serious breach to the downside, we'd have to assume a more bearish bias.
US T-Bond Jun USM1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S T-BOND COMMENTARY There are no Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in T-Bonds. On the Half Day Chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators moved higher with yesterday's activity. The 5 period Double Stoch has already extended into overbought territory, while both the 10 period Double Stoch and the 7 period %K are only slightly below their overbought trigger levels. Cycle Indicators are generally telling us to expect higher to sideways activity in today's trading. The ADX level on the 120 minute chart is above 30 (see charts below), indicating that the trend to higher prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a long position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 120 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 107-08 high. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more upside in the making. ADX levels on 5 and 15 minute charts are below a value of 18. When this occurs, we know that it is a good time to keep an eye out for any developing triangles, wedges, flags, or channels in the respective time frames. We can use breakouts from these patterns as either a trigger into a trade or to help determine directional bias. It would be best to enter today's trading without any directional preference. Instead pay close attention to market action relative to important support and resistance levels. In today's early going, pay particular notice to price behavior in relation to the 106-26 Daily Pivot. Significant activity above this level will imply further upside. Activity below will hint at further downside. Approach today's trading with an open mind and a willingness to let immediate price behavior, coupled with oscillator divergence, tell us which way and how far the market wants to go.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ YESTERDAY'S T-BOND TRADING
Market Commentary Page
For the S&P; 500, Nasdaq 100, and T-Bond Futures Markets
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
2 Day ROC Buy
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used on the floor to determine relative value
based on prior day price action. Significant shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·1176 R2·1157 R1·1138 DP·1113 S1·1095 S2·1070 S3·1051
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
2 Day ROC Buy
90-10 High Continuation: Morning follow through
on yesterday's strong close is likely. Look for long entries
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used on the floor to determine relative value
based on prior day price action. Significant shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·1852 R2·1808 R1·1764 DP·1683 S1·1639 S2·1558 S3·1514
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.
Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There is substantial risk of loss in stock and futures trading. There is no warranty, express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
There are no Pattern Signals fired for today's trading.
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used on the floor to determine relative value
based on prior day price action. Significant shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·108´05 R2·107´23 R1·107´10 DP·106´26 S1·106´13 S2·105´29 S3·105´16
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.