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S&P; 500 Mar SPH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S S&P; 500 COMMENTARY The only Pattern Signal fired for today's trading in the S&P; is the 90-10 Low Continuation. This signal originates from the 80-20s set-ups as described in "Street Smarts". But, rather than using the 80-20 guidelines, the parameters have been narrowed to 90-10, thus reducing the pattern's frequency of occurrence, but increasing its probability as a forecasting tool. The 90-10 Low Continuation signal is fired when the day's close is within the bottom 10% of the day's range. This signal is telling us to expect morning continuation of the downmove. On the S&P; Half Day Chart all three of our Cycle Indicators moved lower with yesterday's activity. Cycle Indicators continue a period of mixed and choppy behavior. It would be best to wait until they've have had a chance to normalize and return to more normal short term cyclical behavior before using them to help determine any sort of directional bias. The 90-10 Low Continuation signal is enough to have us looking for shorts in today's early trading. The ideal setup would entail corrective action towards one of the resistance levels directly above yesterday's closing price, the most significant being the 1341.80 level of the Daily Pivot. If price were able to reach this zone as one of our 20EMAs came down to meet it from above, we'd have an extra reason to get short. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the position with the Low Range Close signal telling us to expect yesterday's low to be exceeded. On the other hand, a convincing upside break of the Daily Pivot would have us thinking more bullish thoughts.
Nasdaq 100 Mar NDH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S NASDAQ 100 COMMENTARY The only Pattern Signal fired for today's trading in the Nasdaq 100 is the 90-10 Low Continuation. This signal originates from the 80-20s set-ups as described in "Street Smarts". But, rather than using the 80-20 guidelines, the parameters have been narrowed to 90-10, thus reducing the pattern's frequency of occurrence, but increasing its probability as a forecasting tool. The 90-10 Low Continuation signal is fired when the day's close is within the bottom 10% of the day's range. This signal is telling us to expect morning continuation of the downmove. On the Nasdaq 100 Half Day Chart all three of our Cycle Indicators moved lower with yesterday's activity. Cycle Indicators continue a period of mixed and choppy behavior. It would be best to wait until they've have had a chance to normalize and return to more normal short term cyclical behavior before using them to help determine any sort of directional bias. Not much has changed in the status of our Historical Volatility Indicator (chart at right). Historical Volatility is a measure of the degree in which price has fluctuated over a particular period of time. Generally, when a market has gone through a period of contraction, there will be a tendency for volatility levels to increase. And sometimes that increase can be very sudden and dramatic. These kind of low Historical Volatility readings have us on lookout for the development of wide-range days which trend in a single direction - the kind of days that are well-suited for capturing large profits. The ADX level on the 120 minute chart is above 30, indicating that the trend to lower prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a short position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 120 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 2362.00 low. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more downside in the making. The 90-10 Low Continuation signal is enough to have us looking for shorts in today's early trading. The ideal setup would entail corrective action towards one of the resistance levels directly above yesterday's closing price, the most significant being the 2403.00 level of the Daily Pivot. If price were able to reach this zone as one of our 20EMAs came down to meet it from above, we'd have an extra reason to get short. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the position with the Low Range Close signal telling us to expect yesterday's low to be exceeded. On the other hand, a convincing upside break of the Daily Pivot would have us thinking more bullish thoughts.
US T-Bond Mar USH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S T-BOND COMMENTARY We have two Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in T-Bonds, the first of which is the 2 Day ROC Buy. This signal is the Raschke and Connors way of quantifying the swing trading methods as taught by the Taylor Trading Technique. This technique teaches that there is a natural pattern to the sequence of buy and sell days. The 2 Day ROC Buy signal is telling us to expect today to be the "buy day" part of that pattern. The second Pattern Signal fired for today is the High Breakout Continuation. This one is a little different than the bulk of the signals that we normally incorporate. Rather than creating a directional bias for the trading day, it points to a likely market development IF an additional condition is met. The setup for the High Breakout Continuation signal includes (1) the signal day's high is within the middle 20% of the prior day's range, and (2) the signal day's low is lower than the prior day's low. If on the day following the signal day (today's trading), the high of the previous day happens to be taken out (yesterday's high) then the probabilities of a continuation trend move upward is very high. This signal is NOT setting up a directional bias for today's trading. Rather, it is indicating that if the prior day's high happens to be taken out, you want to be on board the upward move because odds are it has further to go. On the T-Bond Half Day chart, the 5 period Double Stoch has risen above the oversold trigger level, while the 10 period Double Stoch has ticked just a bit higher. Of greater significance is the upturn in the 7 period %K. A turn of this indicator from within either its overbought or oversold zone is usually a good indication that a new trend has begun and at least several more bars of new short term direction should follow. ADX levels on 5 and 15 minute charts are above 30, indicating that the trend to higher prices is still intact in these timeframes. If we were triggered into a long position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 20EMA in either of these timeframes, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 104-18 high. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more upside in the making. ADX levels on 60, and 120 minute charts are below a value of 18. When this occurs, we know that it is a good time to keep an eye out for any developing triangles, wedges, flags, or channels in the respective time frames. We can use breakouts from these patterns as either a trigger into a trade or to help determine directional bias. Although the 2 Day ROC Buy signal is suggesting further upside, it would be best to enter today's trading without a directional preference. Instead, pay close attention to market action relative to important support and resistance levels. In today's early going, pay particular attention to price behavior in relation to the 104-07 Daily Pivot. Significant activity above this level will imply further upside. Activity below will hint at further downside. Keep in mind, also, that the firing of our High Breakout Continuation signal is telling us that if yesterday's 104-18 high happens to be taken out, the move higher most likely has further to go and we want to be on board. Significant activity above the Daily Pivot will be our earliest warning.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ YESTERDAY'S T-BOND TRADING
Market Commentary Page
For the S&P; 500, Nasdaq 100, and T-Bond Futures Markets
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
90-10 Low Continuation: Morning follow through
on yesterday's weak close is likely. Look for shorts.
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·1379 R2·1364 R1·1350 DP·1342 S1·1327 S2·1319 S3·1305
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
90-10 Low Continuation: Morning follow through
on yesterday's weak close is likely. Look for shorts.
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·2596 R2·2520 R1·2444 DP·2403 S1·2327 S2·2286 S3·2210
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There is substantial risk of loss in stock and futures trading. There is no warranty, express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
2 Day ROC Buy
High Breakout Continuation Setup If yesterday's high is taken
out today, the trend higher is likely to continue for the rest of the day.
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·105´12 R2·105´01 R1·104´22 DP·104´07 S1·103´28 S2·103´13 S3·103´02
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.