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S&P; 500 Mar SPH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S S&P; 500 COMMENTARY There are no Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in the S&P.; On the Half Day Chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators have moved into overbought territory as a result of yesterday's activity. This does not necessarily mean that we should expect a turn to develop right away. If short term cyclical patterns return to more normal behavior, we should see a period of topping action develop before they launch their next move lower. Our first clue will come in the form of a downturn in the 7 period %K. A turn of this indicator from its overbought or oversold zone is usually a good indication that a new trend has begun and at least several more bars of new short term direction should follow. Economic reports on today's agenda include the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales, both released at 7:30CT. Even though Monday is a holiday, the S&P; closes at its normal time today. ADX levels on 15, 30, 60, and 120 minute charts are below a value of 18. When this occurs, we know that it is a good time to keep an eye out for any developing triangles, wedges, flags, or channels in the respective time frames. We can use breakouts from these patterns as either a trigger into a trade or to help determine directional bias. We don't have any Pattern Signals fired to help guide us in a trading strategy for today. It would be best to enter the day without a directional preference, but with strict attention to market action relative to important support and resistance levels. In today's early going, pay particular attention to price behavior in relation to the 1333.00 Daily Pivot. Significant activity above this level will imply further upside. Activity below will hint at further downside. Approach today's trading with an open mind and a willingness to let immediate price behavior, coupled with oscillator divergence, tell us which way and how far the market wants to go.
US T-Bond Mar USH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S T-BOND COMMENTARY We have two Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in the T-Bonds, the first of which is Low Range Close. This signal indicates that the close of yesterday's trading was within the bottom 20% of the day's range and suggests an 80-85% chance that today's low will be less than yesterday's. The second Pattern Signal fired for today's trading is the High Breakout Continuation. This one is a little different than the bulk of the signals that we normally incorporate. Rather than creating a directional bias for the trading day, it points to a likely market development IF an additional condition is met. The setup for the High Breakout Continuation signal includes (1) the signal day's high is within the middle 20% of the prior day's range, and (2) the signal day's low is lower than the prior day's low. If on the day following the signal day (today's trading), the high of the previous day happens to be taken out (yesterday's high) then the probabilities of a continuation trend move upward is very high. This signal is NOT setting up a directional bias for today's trading. Rather, it is indicating that if the prior day's high happens to be taken out, you want to be on board the upward move because odds are it has further to go. On the T-Bond Half Day chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators have moved even further into oversold territory. Normally this would be our cue to start looking for evidence of a short term cyclical bottom. However, indicator activity has been so choppy and erratic lately that we should approach such signs with caution. It is not until the indicators can show us that short term cyclical activity has returned to more typical patterns that we can confidently use them in determining directional bias. Economic reports on today's agenda include the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales, both released at 7:30CT. Bonds close early today at 1:00CT. ADX levels on 5, 15, 30, and 60 minute charts are all above 30, indicating that the trend to lower prices is still intact in these timeframes. If we were triggered into a short position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 20EMA in any of these timeframes, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more downside in the making. Both the Low Range Close signal and high ADX readings in several critical timeframes imply additional downside potential. The ideal scenario would entail a normal corrective reaction towards one of the resistance levels above current price, the most significant being that of the 104-00 Daily Pivot. If price were able to move into this zone as higher timeframe 20EMAs were coming down from above, we'd have another reason to get short. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the trade with the minimum likely target being yesterday's 103-18 low. Keep in mind, also, that the firing of our High Breakout Continuation signal is telling us that if yesterday's 104-23 high happens to be taken out, the move higher most likely has further to go and we want to be on board. Significant activity above the Daily Pivot will be our earliest warning.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ YESTERDAY'S T-BOND TRADING
Market Commentary Page
For the S&P; 500 and T-Bond Futures Markets
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
There are no Pattern Signals fired for today's trading.
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·1366 R2·1356 R1·1345 DP·1333 S1·1323 S2·1311 S3·1300
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There is substantial risk of loss in stock and futures trading. There is no warranty, express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
Low Range Close: 80% chance that today's
low will be less than yesterday's. Look for shorts.
High Breakout Continuation Setup If yesterday's high is taken
out today, the trend higher is likely to continue for the rest of the day.
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·105´28 R2·105´05 R1·104´14 DP·104´00 S1·103´09 S2·102´27 S3·102´04
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.