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The Pattern Trapper September S&P; 500
Analysis for Thursday, June 14, 2007
Pit Symbol: SPU7Electronic Symbol: ESU7

 Most Recent Trading Day With Pivot System             Historical Volatility & Narrow Range Days
   S&R; Levels and 5, 15, and 30 Minute 20EMAs.          Expect range expansion when HisVol is low.


Pivot System S&R; Levels
Used to determine relative value.  
Signficant shifts in market psychol-
ogy often occur near these levels. 

DP  1524.83
R1  1537.17S1  1517.92
R2  1544.08S2  1505.58
R3  1551.00S3  1498.67
Pattern Signals
A pattern recognition technique   
which identifies today's most likely
scenario based on recent activity. 
2 Day ROC Buy
90-10 High Continuation
Range Projections
This market will tend to trade within
the Normal High/Low Range levels.
If exceeded, use Extended levels.  

Extend High:1547.23
Normal High:1539.88
Normal Low:1520.63
Extend Low:1513.27
S&P; 500 Market Commentary - We have two Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in the S&P;, the first of which is the 2 Day ROC Buy. This signal is the Raschke and Connors way of quantifying the swing trading methods as taught by the Taylor Trading Technique. This technique teaches that there is a natural pattern to the sequence of buy and sell days. The 2 Day ROC Buy signal is telling us to expect today to be the "buy day" part of that pattern.

The second signal fired for today is the 90-10 High Continuation. This signal originates from the 80-20s set-ups as described in "Street Smarts". But, rather than using the 80-20 guidelines, the parameters have been narrowed to 90-10, thus reducing the pattern's frequency of occurrence, but increasing its probability as a forecasting tool.

The 90-10 High Continuation signal is fired when the day's close is within the top 10% of the day's range. This signal is telling us to expect morning continuation of the upmove.


Chart created by Tradestation.

On the S&P; Half Day chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators moved higher with yesterday's activity. Cycle Indicators imply higher to sideways trading for today.

Economic reports on today's agenda include the Producer Price Index and State Unemployment Initial Claims at 7:30CT, the Quarterly Services Survey at 9:00CT, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30CT. Note that Friday is "Quadruple Witching" (stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire). There is a tendency for the index markets to rally during the last hour of trading on the day before options expiration, and to sell-off during early trading on the next day. Scalp traders might want to be looking for reasons to get long during the last hour with the intention of exiting before the close.

The ADX level on the 5 minute chart is above a value of 30 (see ADX charts below), indicating that the trend to higher prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a long position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 5 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 1531.75 high. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more upside in the making.

The ADX level on the 60 minute chart is below a value of 18. When this occurs, we know that it is a good time to keep an eye out for any developing triangles, wedges, flags, or channels in the respective time frames. We can use breakouts from these patterns as either a trigger into a trade or to help determine directional bias.

Both the 2 Day ROC Buy and 90-10 High Continuation signals are telling us to look for longs in today's early trading. The ideal setup would entail corrective action towards one of the support levels directly beneath yesterday's closing price, the most significant being that of the 1524.75 Daily Pivot. If price were able to reach this zone as higher timeframe 20EMAs came up to meet it from below, we'd have an extra reason to go long. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the position with the 90-10 High Continuation signal telling us to expect yesterday's 1531.75 high to be exceeded. Use similar price and oscillator behavior characteristics to determine an appropriate exit point above this level.

Although not expected, if the Daily Pivot level were to suffer a serious breach to the downside, we'd have to assume a more bearish bias.

20 Period Exponential Moving Average and 14 Period ADX

ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.

Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There is substantial risk of loss in stock and futures trading. There is no warranty, express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Terms and conditions: Use of The Pattern Trapper Newsletter is granted to the subscriber of record only. Any abuse of subscriber privileges will result in denied access without a refund. All materials are copyright © 2007 by Bob Hunt. No part of these resources may be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission of the copyright holder.



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