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S&P; 500 Mar SPH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S S&P; 500 COMMENTARY We have two Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in the S&P;, the first of which is the 2 Day ROC Buy. This signal is the Raschke and Connors way of quantifying the swing trading methods as taught by the Taylor Trading Technique. This technique teaches that there is a natural pattern to the sequence of buy and sell days. The 2 Day ROC Buy signal is telling us to expect today to be the "buy day" part of that pattern. The second signal fired for today is the 90-10 High Continuation. This signal originates from the 80-20s set-ups as described in "Street Smarts". But, rather than using the 80-20 guidelines, the parameters have been narrowed to 90-10, thus reducing the pattern's frequency of occurrence, but increasing its probability as a forecasting tool. The 90-10 High Continuation signal is fired when the day's close is within the top 10% of the day's range. This signal is telling us to expect morning continuation of the upmove. On the S&P; Half Day Chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators moved lower with yesterday's activity. Although the last bar of yesterday's action upticked a bit, we have not yet formed a clean short term cyclical bottom. Cycle Indicators are still generally telling us to expect lower to sideways activity in today's trading. The ADX level on the 120 minute chart is above 30 (see charts below), indicating that the trend to lower prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a short position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 120 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 1216.00 low. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more downside in the making. Both the 2 Day ROC Buy and 90-10 High Continuation signals are telling us to look for longs in today's early trading. The ideal setup would entail corrective action towards one of the support levels directly under yesterday's closing price, the most significant being that of the 1234.50 Daily Pivot. If price were able to reach this zone as higher timeframe 20EMAs came up to meet it from below, we'd have an extra reason to go long. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the position with the 90-10 High Continuation signal telling us to expect yesterday's 1244.00 high to be exceeded. Use similar price and oscillator behavior characteristics to determine an appropriate exit point above this level. Although not expected, if the 1234.50 Daily Pivot level were to suffer a serious breach to the downside, we'd have to assume a more bearish bias.
Nasdaq 100 Mar NDH1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S NASDAQ 100 COMMENTARY We have two Pattern Signals fired for today's trading in the Nasdaq 100, the first of which is the 2 Day ROC Buy. This signal is the Raschke and Connors way of quantifying the swing trading methods as taught by the Taylor Trading Technique. This technique teaches that there is a natural pattern to the sequence of buy and sell days. The 2 Day ROC Buy signal is telling us to expect today to be the "buy day" part of that pattern. The second signal fired for today is the 90-10 High Continuation. This signal originates from the 80-20s set-ups as described in "Street Smarts". But, rather than using the 80-20 guidelines, the parameters have been narrowed to 90-10, thus reducing the pattern's frequency of occurrence, but increasing its probability as a forecasting tool. The 90-10 High Continuation signal is fired when the day's close is within the top 10% of the day's range. This signal is telling us to expect morning continuation of the upmove. On the Nasdaq 100 Half Day Chart, all three of our Cycle Indicators jogged higher from oversold levels on the last bar of yesterday's activity. Although this kind of move is often an early sign of a short term cyclical bottom, the patterns leading up to this move do not support such an assessment. It would be best to wait until the indicators have had a chance to normalize and return to more normal short term cyclical behavior before using them to help determine any sort of directional bias. The ADX level on the 120 minute chart is above 30 (see charts below), indicating that the trend to lower prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a short position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 120 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 1842.00 low. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more downside in the making. However, the ADX level on the 5 minute chart is above 30, indicating that the trend to higher prices is still intact in this timeframe. If we were triggered into a long position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 5 minute 20EMA, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup to the upside. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme, which would be yesterday's 1973.00 high. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more upside in the making. Both the 2 Day ROC Buy and 90-10 High Continuation signals are telling us to look for longs in today's early trading. The ideal setup would entail corrective action towards one of the support levels directly under yesterday's closing price, the most significant being that of the 1925.00 Daily Pivot. If price were able to reach this zone as higher timeframe 20EMAs came up to meet it from below, we'd have an extra reason to go long. A price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence can trigger us into the position with the 90-10 High Continuation signal telling us to expect yesterday's 1973.00 high to be exceeded. Use similar price and oscillator behavior characteristics to determine an appropriate exit point above this level. Although not expected, if the 1925.00 Daily Pivot level were to suffer a serious breach to the downside, we'd have to assume a more bearish bias.
US T-Bond Jun USM1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY'S T-BOND COMMENTARY The only Pattern Signal fired for today's trading is the NR7. This signal tells us that the market has gone through a period of contraction with yesterday's range being the narrowest of the last seven. If the market were thought of as a spring gradually being compressed, this signal represents a potential trigger point for releasing that pressure. A good clue as to if and which direction it might break can be determined by today's market action near yesterday's high and low levels. A break of either is a likely indication of the new trend direction out of this contraction period. An aggressive trader can enter on the breakout. A conservative trader might want to wait until a return to the breakout level, which often happens before a sustained move begins. Some initial clues to breakout direction can often come from early rejections of these levels. If the high is approached, repelled, and price then moves through the DP, the likely breakout direction is the low. Likewise, if the low is approached, repelled, and price goes through the DP from below, the likely breakout direction is the high. Another clue can often be found in price action near the DP. If price is unable to move through this level, the likely breakout direction will be the same side as it originated. Although the net effect of yesterday's trading was higher prices, Cycle Indicators continue to point towards the recent formation of a short term cyclical top. All three indicators moved lower, suggesting lower to sideways action in today's trading. ADX levels on 30 and 60 minute charts are above 30, indicating that the trend to higher prices is still intact in these timeframes. If we were triggered into a long position by a price reversal pattern and/or Oscillator Divergence near the 20EMA in either of these timeframes, we would have the makings of a Holy Grail setup. A trade based in part on a Holy Grail pattern can take as its minimum profit target a return to the most recent swing pivot extreme. If the move to that level can occur on Momentum Confirmation, there should be even more upside in the making. The NR7 signal should be the real key to today's trading. Whenever a Narrow Range Day Pattern Signal fires we can go into the trading day with two key pieces of information at our side. 1) We know that in all likelihood, price activity should essentially trend in one primary direction. And (2) clues to the direction of the potential trend day breakout will most likely be determined by price action relative to the prior day's high and low, and to today's DP as described above.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ YESTERDAY'S T-BOND TRADING
Market Commentary Page
For the S&P; 500, Nasdaq 100, and T-Bond Futures Markets
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
2 Day ROC Buy
90-10 High Continuation: Morning follow through
on yesterday's strong close is likely. Look for long entries
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·1272 R2·1263 R1·1253 DP·1235 S1·1225 S2·1207 S3·1197
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
2 Day ROC Buy
90-10 High Continuation: Morning follow through
on yesterday's strong close is likely. Look for long entries
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·2104 R2·2056 R1·2008 DP·1925 S1·1877 S2·1794 S3·1746
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.
Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There is substantial risk of loss in stock and futures trading. There is no warranty, express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Pattern Signals - an automated pattern identification process which
identifies today's most likely market scenario based on recent price behavior.
NR7 Signal (narrowest range of the last seven days)
This signal indicates that range expansion is highly likely.
If, during the day, yesterday's high is exceeded then either buy the breakout
(aggressive) or buy the retracement to the breakout (conservative).
If, during the day, yesterday's low is exceeded then either sell the breakout
(aggressive) or sell the retracement to the breakout (conservative).
Pivot System Support & Resistance Levels - used by floor professionals to determine
value based on prior day price activity. Shifts in market psychology often occur near these levels.
R3·106´22 R2·106´14 R1·106´06 DP·105´28 S1·105´20 S2·105´10 S3·105´02
Range Projections - This market will have a tendency to trade within the Normal
High/Low Range today as noted below. If those levels are exceeded, use the Extended Range.
ADX<18 indicates ambivalence: use chart pattern breakouts to help determine directional bias. ADX>30 defines trend
moves in that timeframe: watch for retracements to the 20EMA. The colored bar under ADX represents trend direction.